One of the questions I've gotten from guys who own W2W is ... "How can so-and-so have an interception rating of 45? He was a better QB than that!"
Well, the reason for it ties neatly into the conversion conversation (I like that alliteration!), which is to say that we can neatly port over the formula and rationale for interception rating into the new game. But before I do, let's talk a bit of math ...
Ahhhhh, you say ... here's where you trick me into listening to a dissertation on math and complex equations! No, not really. But, until you understand some of what you can do with math and game design, you won't really understand a rating that's used, and how it *will* work "correctly" over thousands of dice rolls.
Let's take an interception rating, then, in the context of W2W, because that context will be identical for the new game. And let's assume that the QB we're looking at has an interception percentage of 3.9.
If you were designing a game with individual QB cards, like APBA, you can make sure the QB throws a pick 3.9% of the time by simply assigning him enough card results that can end in an interception roughly 3.9% of the time. In a base-36 system like APBA, merely multiply 36 by .039 ... and you find you'll need 1.4 card results. And, based on which card results end in an interception (and how often), you'd find the two results that happen 1.4 times in 36.
For percentage-based games, you'd simply say that the QB gets picked on some range that can be a range of four (base-100) or a range of 39 (base-1000). Let's look at that base-100 number again ...
In a 2d10 system (base-100), there's no way to replicate to the tenth of a percentage point. 3.9 gets rounded to 3 or 4, depending on what you want. But the question you should be asking here, a la Joe Pesci in "My Cousin Vinny", is "Are you suuuure?"
The answer, of course, is "no" ... we're not sure that we can't replicate that because we need to add a dimension to the base-100 system that will take us to another level, creating a base-1000 system without the need for a three-digit dice roll.
How? By introducing a concept that was first seen in On The Green Golf ... the Activator Die, an additional d10 that allows us to do all sorts of additional things that we can't do with a base-100 system.
Here's the thought process: For the most part, no QB with regular playing time has an interception rate higher than 10%. So, we add the Activator Die and say that, whenever the Activator Die is EQUAL to the Ones Die from the 2d10 roll, we have an "interception check" ... statistically, this will happen 10 times out of every 100 dice rolls (00, 11, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99).
Why an "interception check" and not a straight INT? Because all but the rarest of QBs will have an interception rate of 10%. What the check does is make us do another 2d10 roll, that now must be less than or equal to the QB's Interception Rating, for there to actually be an interception. Anything higher is simply an incomplete pass (overthrown, dropped by the d-back, batted away, etc).
For this QB, his Interception Rating is 39. Why? Because 39% of the time, when there's an Interception Check, he will throw the pick. WAIT!! Are you saying he's got a rate of 39%?? Didn't you say 3.9%??
Nope, I'm saying that, 10% of the time, he'll throw a pick 39% of the time. And the math then proves an interception rate of 3.9% ...
rate = .10 x .39
rate = .039 = 3.9%
There's is a way to short-cut this, and we'll be using this short-cut in the new game.
No qualifying QB (one who has enough pass attempts to be rated in the game) should have a completion percentage higher than 90%. Because of that, we can state, in the rules, that anytime a QB's Pass Roll is 90-99 (in our game, 00 = 0, not 100), then there's an Interception Check. And then, just as in W2W (but without an Activator), we do another roll against the QB's rating to see if he gets picked.
And so, now you see a couple of ways that you can approach representing plays that are a subset of the whole. Folks need to remember that the interceptions are "double-counted" in football ... they are part of the total number of pass attempts, and they are also counted separately. A QB who is 3-5-1 actually had 3 completions, one incompletion, and one interception.
Showing posts with label W2W. Show all posts
Showing posts with label W2W. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Features
For those not familiar with W2W, here are some features of the game that I think folks will enjoy seeing in the new game ...
1) On passing plays, even if the dice roll indicates that the QB has thrown "complete", the game only treats that as "on target", meaning the pass will not be intercepted ... but the play result may still read "incomplete" due to a receiver drop, pass break-up, etc.
This increases the "suspense" factor ... say you need a long pass completion to set-up the winning field goal. After adjusting for all the pass factors (don't panic, there's not as much math as it might sound), you roll and the pass is "on target" ... so you're probably 90% sure the pass will be caught ... it's that 10% chance or so that the receiver won't catch the ball that worries you. So, rather than "knowing" the play is good ... you have to roll again and see if the dice find the incompletion.
2) On passing plays, the play call can be "changed" by results of Hot Read (R), or Checkdown (C). If a Hot Read results, the play is re-rolled on the next longest pass play card. If a Checkdown results, the play is re-rolled on the next shortest pass play.
So, you can get a Hot Read on a screen, short, and medium pass, and a Checkdown on a short, medium, and long pass. You can also get multiple Hot Reads or Checkdowns on a single play if the dice are "right" ... you could look long for the bomb and checkdown to a short pass or, you could look to swing a screen and then the QB sees something that takes him to a medium pass. Again, it's all about taking complete knowledge and control of a play out of your hands and put it into the hands of the players on the field.
3) We won't be using decimal yardage in the outdoor game, but there will be a rule (and chart) in play where, when a first down is made exactly, that the play either came up short or made it (with a potential video review). Same for touchdowns.
For example, it's third and goal from the four-yard line. The play result is a gain of four yards. The chart is consulted and will either result in the play coming up short (and recorded as a three-yard gain under NFL scoring rules), or breaking the plane.
4) Speaking of video review, every play that qualifies for video review will be given a Review Modifier ... an addition/subtraction from the Video Review dice roll that gives the play a better chance of being upheld or overturned, as the case may be.
Extending the previous example, the call is that the runner is short of the goal line, but the Review Modifier is +3, meaning that there's a better chance that the call will be overturned. This gives you, the player, a gauge as to whether or not to challenge the call on the field ... yep, you heard that right ... only *you* will determine if the play will be challenged, although the game system will define when a play is close enough to challenge (white result on red background) ... and other rules allow for challenges (for example, any pass play where the receiver goes out of bounds ... did he get the toes down??)
5) Defensive plays will "change" as the offense nears the end zone ... yards are harder to come by on the ground ... completion percentage drops with less territory to work with ... and so on.
And defenses come with the usual risk-reward factor ... you wanna go run-stop? OK, but completion percentage goes up. You wanna blitz? Sure, but those screens just became a huge liability for you, both percentage- AND yardage-wise!
6) Unlike W2W, the plan (for now) is not to have team-specific play-calling cards. There will be a generic play-calling system, based on the tendencies of all 32 NFL clubs over a ten-year period. But, don't fret ... the timing system will allow you to replicate the no-huddle offense, or the Chip Kelly offense by allowing you to control the game tempo based on the offensive "system" you're in ... which then controls the timing rules.
And there will be much more to discuss as I start re-vamping actual game charts for the outdoor game ...
1) On passing plays, even if the dice roll indicates that the QB has thrown "complete", the game only treats that as "on target", meaning the pass will not be intercepted ... but the play result may still read "incomplete" due to a receiver drop, pass break-up, etc.
This increases the "suspense" factor ... say you need a long pass completion to set-up the winning field goal. After adjusting for all the pass factors (don't panic, there's not as much math as it might sound), you roll and the pass is "on target" ... so you're probably 90% sure the pass will be caught ... it's that 10% chance or so that the receiver won't catch the ball that worries you. So, rather than "knowing" the play is good ... you have to roll again and see if the dice find the incompletion.
2) On passing plays, the play call can be "changed" by results of Hot Read (R), or Checkdown (C). If a Hot Read results, the play is re-rolled on the next longest pass play card. If a Checkdown results, the play is re-rolled on the next shortest pass play.
So, you can get a Hot Read on a screen, short, and medium pass, and a Checkdown on a short, medium, and long pass. You can also get multiple Hot Reads or Checkdowns on a single play if the dice are "right" ... you could look long for the bomb and checkdown to a short pass or, you could look to swing a screen and then the QB sees something that takes him to a medium pass. Again, it's all about taking complete knowledge and control of a play out of your hands and put it into the hands of the players on the field.
3) We won't be using decimal yardage in the outdoor game, but there will be a rule (and chart) in play where, when a first down is made exactly, that the play either came up short or made it (with a potential video review). Same for touchdowns.
For example, it's third and goal from the four-yard line. The play result is a gain of four yards. The chart is consulted and will either result in the play coming up short (and recorded as a three-yard gain under NFL scoring rules), or breaking the plane.
4) Speaking of video review, every play that qualifies for video review will be given a Review Modifier ... an addition/subtraction from the Video Review dice roll that gives the play a better chance of being upheld or overturned, as the case may be.
Extending the previous example, the call is that the runner is short of the goal line, but the Review Modifier is +3, meaning that there's a better chance that the call will be overturned. This gives you, the player, a gauge as to whether or not to challenge the call on the field ... yep, you heard that right ... only *you* will determine if the play will be challenged, although the game system will define when a play is close enough to challenge (white result on red background) ... and other rules allow for challenges (for example, any pass play where the receiver goes out of bounds ... did he get the toes down??)
5) Defensive plays will "change" as the offense nears the end zone ... yards are harder to come by on the ground ... completion percentage drops with less territory to work with ... and so on.
And defenses come with the usual risk-reward factor ... you wanna go run-stop? OK, but completion percentage goes up. You wanna blitz? Sure, but those screens just became a huge liability for you, both percentage- AND yardage-wise!
6) Unlike W2W, the plan (for now) is not to have team-specific play-calling cards. There will be a generic play-calling system, based on the tendencies of all 32 NFL clubs over a ten-year period. But, don't fret ... the timing system will allow you to replicate the no-huddle offense, or the Chip Kelly offense by allowing you to control the game tempo based on the offensive "system" you're in ... which then controls the timing rules.
And there will be much more to discuss as I start re-vamping actual game charts for the outdoor game ...
Monday, October 6, 2014
Play Cards
From the previous post, it should be noted that there are really only four play types in W2W: Run, Short Pass, Medium Pass, and Long Pass. Because the indoor game is so pass-heavy, and the field rather narrow (with only three down linemen), four plays is about all you need to represent the sport.
Outdoor football, with a much wider field, and where defenders are allowed to blitz (something outlawed in the indoor game), you need more play types. Couple reasons for this, the most obvious of which is that there are lots more options outdoors than indoors. The other comes down to the immersion factor for you, the game player.
If you love indoor football, you know that there's very little variation in the plays that are run. There's almost always a receiver in motion toward the line of scrimmage on every play; the only "options" are where he lines up and whether he circles around the back of the formation or straight up the slot.
However, if you love outdoor football, you know that there are sweeps, and draws, and off-tackle runs, plunges, dives, etc. There are screen passes, dump-offs, bubble screens, slants, quick-hitters, posts, go routes, etc. And if you're playing a game on the tabletop, you want to have, at the very least, a set of plays that allow you more flexibility to run your offense.
In this new game, the plan is to have, at a minimum, the following plays: inside run, outside run, screen pass, short pass, medium pass, long pass, gadget plays, kneeldowns, and spike plays. We'll also allow you to put your QB under center or in the shotgun as you choose.
Defensively, we'll be looking at: base 3-4/4-3, run key, pass key, nickel, dime, prevent, and goal line/short yardage. On special teams, teams will have punt block and placekick block options, as well.
The key here is ... where do I get the data for all of this? I have some sources, not all of which I am willing to share. One source is the NFL GameBooks ... every game's play-by-play logged and noted for you. Not easy data to put together, but if you had the time, you could copy and paste and code every single play from every season there are GameBooks for.
Other sources cost me to access, which, for many of you, partially explains the cost of a simple PDF being "more" that it appears on the surface. Yes, a PDF is virtually cost-free to create and send. But, the data that the PDF represents generally cost me something to obtain, and thus you, the customer, help me recoup that cost.
So, now that we know what plays there are going to be, we can start devising the play cards for the outdoor version of the game ...
And that's coming soon ...
Outdoor football, with a much wider field, and where defenders are allowed to blitz (something outlawed in the indoor game), you need more play types. Couple reasons for this, the most obvious of which is that there are lots more options outdoors than indoors. The other comes down to the immersion factor for you, the game player.
If you love indoor football, you know that there's very little variation in the plays that are run. There's almost always a receiver in motion toward the line of scrimmage on every play; the only "options" are where he lines up and whether he circles around the back of the formation or straight up the slot.
However, if you love outdoor football, you know that there are sweeps, and draws, and off-tackle runs, plunges, dives, etc. There are screen passes, dump-offs, bubble screens, slants, quick-hitters, posts, go routes, etc. And if you're playing a game on the tabletop, you want to have, at the very least, a set of plays that allow you more flexibility to run your offense.
In this new game, the plan is to have, at a minimum, the following plays: inside run, outside run, screen pass, short pass, medium pass, long pass, gadget plays, kneeldowns, and spike plays. We'll also allow you to put your QB under center or in the shotgun as you choose.
Defensively, we'll be looking at: base 3-4/4-3, run key, pass key, nickel, dime, prevent, and goal line/short yardage. On special teams, teams will have punt block and placekick block options, as well.
The key here is ... where do I get the data for all of this? I have some sources, not all of which I am willing to share. One source is the NFL GameBooks ... every game's play-by-play logged and noted for you. Not easy data to put together, but if you had the time, you could copy and paste and code every single play from every season there are GameBooks for.
Other sources cost me to access, which, for many of you, partially explains the cost of a simple PDF being "more" that it appears on the surface. Yes, a PDF is virtually cost-free to create and send. But, the data that the PDF represents generally cost me something to obtain, and thus you, the customer, help me recoup that cost.
So, now that we know what plays there are going to be, we can start devising the play cards for the outdoor version of the game ...
And that's coming soon ...
Sample W2W Play Cards
Here's a look at two of the play cards from W2W: the Run Play and the Short Pass Play ...
What's This About Wall 2 Wall?
For those following along who do not own Wall 2 Wall Indoor Football, a lot of what follows in this blog will seem foreign to you.
I had contemplated a lengthy explanation of the game, how it plays, and its genesis, so that everyone can be "up to speed" as we get started. But that would eat up a lot of time as I would have to be thorough enough that a complete novice would understand at level that would leave them with virtually no questions going forward.
I decided not to go that route for two reasons: 1) the purely selfish motivation that it would take up time I really don't want to spend re-hashing a process that happened four years ago, and 2) the backstory really won't have much impact on how I approach this game, going forward.
You see, Wall 2 Wall (W2W hereafter) was built specifically to represent the indoor game. All the probabilities you see in W2W come from arena league stats and tendencies, and all of the charts and rules are geared for the indoor game only. W2W is, to my knowledge, the only game to represent the indoor game that was built on the indoor game ... not modified from an outdoor game engine.
But, to convert from W2W to this new game, I have to "throw out" much of what came before in terms of charts and tables. For example, you can return missed field goals if they rebound back into the field of play from the nets. But, in the outdoor game, you can only return a field goal if it is short, and fielded within the field of play; a field goal sailing wide right can't be returned.
Penalty rates, fumble rates, interception rates, etc., are all vastly different in the indoor game than the outdoor game. Thus, the charts will reflect those characteristics, as well.
What won't change is the basic way the game plays: roll three, ten-sided dice, and using different ways to read the three dice, you can get the play result and whether or not a fumble, penalty, etc. happened on the play. What triggers each may be different with the new game, but the base mechanic is (at least for now) staying as it was in W2W.
So, if you feel "lost" at any time during the process, it's because you don't have the working background in W2W (again, I'm saying this to non-owners of the game) to have as complete an understanding as you like. You're free to use the comments to ask questions and, wherever practical (which means "Whenever the answer can be kept brief"), address those questions.
I had contemplated a lengthy explanation of the game, how it plays, and its genesis, so that everyone can be "up to speed" as we get started. But that would eat up a lot of time as I would have to be thorough enough that a complete novice would understand at level that would leave them with virtually no questions going forward.
I decided not to go that route for two reasons: 1) the purely selfish motivation that it would take up time I really don't want to spend re-hashing a process that happened four years ago, and 2) the backstory really won't have much impact on how I approach this game, going forward.
You see, Wall 2 Wall (W2W hereafter) was built specifically to represent the indoor game. All the probabilities you see in W2W come from arena league stats and tendencies, and all of the charts and rules are geared for the indoor game only. W2W is, to my knowledge, the only game to represent the indoor game that was built on the indoor game ... not modified from an outdoor game engine.
But, to convert from W2W to this new game, I have to "throw out" much of what came before in terms of charts and tables. For example, you can return missed field goals if they rebound back into the field of play from the nets. But, in the outdoor game, you can only return a field goal if it is short, and fielded within the field of play; a field goal sailing wide right can't be returned.
Penalty rates, fumble rates, interception rates, etc., are all vastly different in the indoor game than the outdoor game. Thus, the charts will reflect those characteristics, as well.
What won't change is the basic way the game plays: roll three, ten-sided dice, and using different ways to read the three dice, you can get the play result and whether or not a fumble, penalty, etc. happened on the play. What triggers each may be different with the new game, but the base mechanic is (at least for now) staying as it was in W2W.
So, if you feel "lost" at any time during the process, it's because you don't have the working background in W2W (again, I'm saying this to non-owners of the game) to have as complete an understanding as you like. You're free to use the comments to ask questions and, wherever practical (which means "Whenever the answer can be kept brief"), address those questions.
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